Olivia Rodrigo holds a projected lead of less than 2% in the Billboard 200 race.

Lil Baby is looking at a runner-up opening for FRESH. HITS Daily Double now projects approximately 61,000 first-week album-equivalent units and a No. 2 Billboard 200 debut, revising its earlier 64,000-unit, chart-topping forecast.

The projected winner is Olivia Rodrigo’s you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love. Its expected advantage over Baby is less than 2%, narrowing the gap. These remain projections ahead of Billboard’s official chart.

If the placements hold, Baby will remain at four No. 1 albums: My Turn, The Voice of the Heroes with Lil Durk, It’s Only Me, and WHAM. His latest forecast is smaller than the 140,000-unit debut for WHAM and the 216,000-unit opening for It’s Only Me.

FRESH arrived November 6 with 17 tracks. Future, Young Thug, and Rylo Rodriguez appear, with “Dead Fresh,” “From The Back,” “All Us,” and “In Your Head” among the selections.

The narrow chart loss isn’t my biggest concern. I wanted Baby to take more chances, and FRESH gave me too much familiar territory. Seeing his projected opening drop by more than half is concerning, though a top-five debut still gives him something to build on.

Quincy

Quincy is the creator of Ratings Game Music. He loves writing about music, taking long walks on beaches, and spaghetti that fights him back.