Folk music just kicked the door open.

Noah Kahan is reportedly set for the biggest week of his career, as his new album The Great Divide is considered a lock for No. 1 on next week’s Billboard 200, with projections sitting around 275,000 first-week units. That is superstar-level business.

For those unfamiliar, Kahan has become one of the most successful singer-songwriters of the last few years. The Vermont native built his name through emotional storytelling, folk-pop production, and lyrics that hit people right in the ribs. He exploded commercially with Stick Season, while songs like “Stick Season,” “Dial Drunk,” “Northern Attitude,” and “Everywhere, Everything” helped turn him into a streaming giant.

Now he returns with The Great Divide, a 17-track project that already has momentum thanks to the title track and “Porch Light.” Both songs have connected strongly with fans and helped build serious anticipation for release week.

What makes this impressive is that Kahan does not always get the same flashy notoriety as some bigger pop names. He is not at Lakers game or rubbing elbows with influencers. He simply makes music that people deeply connect with.

If projections hold, this debut would rank around the fourth biggest opening of the year, behind J. Cole’s The Fall-Off and ahead of ATEEZ’s GOLDEN HOUR : Part 4. That’s impressive as hell.

Quincy

Quincy is the creator of Ratings Game Music. He loves writing about music, taking long walks on beaches, and spaghetti that fights him back.